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The administration’s press service announced this on 20 December.

«On December 21, President Biden will announce a massive new nearly $2 billion security assistance package to Ukraine. It will contain a very important new capability: the Patriot missile battery, which will be a vital asset in protecting the Ukrainian people from Russia’s barbaric attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure,» the White House spokesman said.

• Zelensky flies to Washington. This is his first foreign trip since the beginning of the war in Ukraine
• Media: US prepares to transfer Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine

Since the start of the war in February, Ukraine has already received a host of Western air defense systems, from man-portable Stinger missiles to more advanced radar or heat-guided systems. All of them provide a comprehensive level of protection against various threats.

Over the past few months, Ukrainian officials have been publicly urging the United States to provide precisely «Patriots».

• Kyiv asked NATO for Patriot systems and tanks. Allies promised support, but no details
• NATO summit in Bucharest: «We can’t let Putin win»

But Kyiv’s requests were ignored in Washington. Prior to the start of the Russian invasion, the main US air defense assistance consisted in the supply of short-range man-portable air defense systems, rather than large and powerful air defense and missile defense systems.

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Video caption,

Why does Ukraine need a Patriot? nine0005

The turning point took place only in October of this year, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine received the latest German IRIS-T system. A few more weeks later, several US-Norwegian NASAMS complexes were handed over to Ukraine.

In the West, they said they want to create a layered missile defense system in Ukraine, linking in it weapons supplied from different countries and already available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. So far, there have been no long-range systems in this system — and, according to experts, the Patriot can fill this niche.

• The West will build a new air defense system for Ukraine. How will she work?

Patriot systems are extremely efficient and very expensive. One Patriot rocket costs about $3 million — three times more than a NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) rocket, two of which have been operating in Ukraine for several weeks now.

In the latest modification of the PAK-3, the battery can carry up to 128 missiles (16 in each mount). However, it is still unknown whether Ukraine can get just such a model. nine0005

Neither the US military nor the troops of other NATO countries will be able to operate these systems on the territory of Ukraine, therefore, as is the case with other Western weapons, the Ukrainian military will have to learn how to use these systems — and this training will take place outside their country.

Such training may already be in full swing, and the US military recently announced that it will expand the training program for Ukrainian troops in Germany from January.

Not a panacea, but a serious help for the defense of Ukraine

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The Patriot air defense system is definitely not a silver bullet that can solve all the problems of Ukrainian air defense. This is indeed a very effective complex, but its capabilities are limited by several circumstances. nine0005

First, he specializes in anti-ballistic missiles. This does not mean that it is not capable of combating other targets, but Ukraine will need it precisely for this: the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not currently have other means to combat such targets.

Second — to all appearances, only one battery will be transferred to Kyiv. Such a battery can include up to eight launchers, although it is possible that fewer will be delivered as part of it. However, the complex is one air defense unit — it is built around one radar, one command center, one antenna-mast machine and one electric generator. This battery will be able to cover one rather large object, but will not be able to protect several. nine0005

There is one more circumstance that will affect the speed of deployment of this complex in Ukraine: personnel for such a system is trained for a long time, specialists, command staff, operators can be trained for months — even taking into account the fact that it will be difficult to find competent and experienced air defense officers in Ukraine not difficult.

American personnel will not be able to participate in his work in Ukraine for political reasons: this was perceived as US involvement in the war with Russia. Washington probably would not want to complicate relations with Moscow that much. nine0005

If the deployment of «Patriots» in Ukraine takes place in the near future, this will mean that preparations for this began several months ago.

Moscow is dissatisfied

It is not surprising that the supply of a modern air defense system caused displeasure in Russia.

Moscow called any plans to deploy «Patriots» a provocation and a further expansion of US military involvement in Ukraine.

Back in November, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev publicly warned the West against providing this air defense system. nine0005

«If, as Stoltenberg hinted, NATO supplies Kyiv fanatics with Patriot complexes along with NATO personnel, they will immediately become a legitimate target of our Armed Forces,» he said, expressing the hope that «Atlantic impotents understand this.»

President Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov then said that the Kremlin shared this point of view.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova at a briefing on December 15 noted that the transfer of «Patriots» to Ukrainian troops would lead to an escalation of the conflict. nine0005

Image copyright Reuters

«Previously, many experts, including overseas, doubted the wisdom of such a move, leading to an escalation of the conflict, increasing the risk of the US army being directly involved in hostilities,» she said.

The decision to send the battery is a clear signal that Washington remains ready to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine. Iran’s supply of attack drones and possibly other weapons to Russia adds to the concern. As a result, more modern Western systems will be delivered to Ukraine, which Moscow clearly would not want. nine0005

It is difficult to say exactly what the overall effect of the Patriot systems will be.

They certainly provide an extra layer of protection, but their size and cost means Ukraine won’t get much of them.

Why does Ukraine need the Patriot so much?

The name PATRIOT is an acronym. It stands for «Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target».

In America, the Patriot system began to be developed back in the middle of 1980s. In combat conditions, it began to be used in the early 90s during the Gulf War.

The main advantages of this complex are the high speed of bringing to combat readiness, the ability to fire at several targets simultaneously, high maneuverability and noise immunity.

One of the main advantages of «Patriots» for Ukraine is the ability to shoot down not only planes or cruise missiles, but also ballistic ones.

It is this type of missile that causes the most trouble for the Ukrainian air defense forces, because it is almost impossible to intercept. The rocket does not fly above the surface of the earth, but rises along a ballistic trajectory upwards and from there attacks the target almost vertically at great speed. nine0005

According to the American manufacturer, the latest Patriot system can hit ballistic missiles at an altitude of up to 20 km.

«PATRIOT PAC-3″ — the latest modification — can work on Iskanders (Russian ballistic missiles), on Kinzhal (hypersonic aircraft missile), on Zirkon (hypersonic anti-ship missile). From what we were provided, this would be the best decision for the time being,» General of the Reserves Ihor Romanenko, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who was in charge of air defense in 2006-2010, explained in an interview with BBC News Ukraine. nine0005

Another feature of the latest modification (PAS-3) is that the interceptor missile hits the target directly, and does not detonate next to it.

In addition to the United States, Patriot systems are in service with several countries. We are talking about Germany, Sweden, Japan, Kuwait.

The command of the Ukrainian Air Force has already stated that the Patriot systems can be effectively integrated into the national air defense system. Considering the cost and effectiveness of the system, they are likely to be used to protect large cities or critical infrastructure. nine0005

How Putin and Shoigu proposed to reform the army. The main thing — RBC

Raising the draft age, new contract rules, the number of military personnel. What was discussed at the board of the Ministry of Defense — in the material RBC

Photo: Konstantin Mikhalchevsky / RIA Novosti

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed several changes.

• Gradual increase in the age of conscription into the army from 18 to 21 years. The upper threshold is to be raised to 30 years.
• Those wishing to voluntarily enter into a contract to give such an opportunity from the first day of joining the service. nine0020
• To increase the strength of the armed forces to 1.5 million servicemen. In August 2022, Putin signed a decree on the size of the army, which set the number of military personnel at 1.15 million people.
• Create two new military districts — Moscow and Leningrad. Now the country has Western, Central, Southern and Eastern districts.

adv.rbc.ru

Shoigu also reported on the reorganization and creation of new units:

adv.rbc.ru

• three new directorates of aviation divisions will be created — eight new bomber regiments, one fighter regiment, and six army aviation brigades;
• five divisions of marines will be formed on the basis of existing marine brigades;
• two new air assault divisions will appear in the Airborne Forces;
• five new artillery divisions of military districts and high-capacity artillery brigades will appear in strategic directions; nine0020
• three new motorized rifle divisions will appear as part of combined arms formations in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions;
• army corps will be formed in Karelia;
• combined arms and tank armies will receive mixed aviation divisions and army aviation brigades, each of which will have 80-100 helicopters.

President Vladimir Putin demanded to use information about NATO forces and means to increase the combat capabilities of troops. nine0005

• Putin ruled out the militarization of the country’s economy. “We have everything,” the president said.
• He also urged the Ministry of Defense to take into account criticism and respond to it in a timely manner.
• As a result of partial mobilization, a «sufficient reserve» has been formed to conduct a special operation, Putin said. According to him, 300 thousand people were called up, some of them are in the combat zone, 150 thousand are being trained at training grounds. “This is practically a strategic reserve that is not used in hostilities, but people are being trained there,” Putin said. nine0020
• Exemption from conscription to support the economy received 830 thousand people, said Shoigu.
• The Minister of Defense announced that this year the nuclear triad was replenished with a deeply modernized Tu-160M ​​strategic bomber.
• This year the strategic missile cruiser «Generalissimo Suvorov» project 955A «Borey-A», armed with Bulava ballistic missiles, was also accepted into the Navy.
• According to Shoigu, next year the fleet should receive the nuclear cruiser of the Borey-A project Imperator Alexander III, four submarines and 12 surface ships. nine0020

Now the smallest generation of the 1990s is subject to conscription — the birth rate increased only in 2008, notes Alexander Safonov, professor at the Financial University. “The number of young people who have reached the age of 18 will be quite low, so the basic basis for conscription is being reduced,” he said. The second point, according to Safonov, is related to how youth is defined by law today — now it includes people under 35 years old. The final draft age has not changed since Soviet times, and it was based on the previous understanding of this category, Safonov added. nine0005

“Demographic parameters are also changing – people are living longer, the age at which the first child is born is shifting, family workload is also shifting: on average, family obligations appear closer to 30,” he noted. In addition, college graduation falls between 18 and 21 years of age, the expert said.

According to Rosstat, as of January 1, 2022, there were 7.2 million people aged 17 to 26 in Russia and 7.5 million people aged 20 to 29, demographer Aleksey Raksha noted. The effective increase in the number of persons available for conscription may be higher, since a part of men aged 18-20 who leave the conscription and under the current procedure receive a deferment in connection with admission to universities. nine0005

“Even if there is a small demographic advantage, it will disappear literally in a year, and then become negative. Already from 2024, the number of men aged 21-30 will be less than those aged 18-27,” he said. According to Raksha, the demographic pit of the 1990s is moving into older ages, by the age of 30. “Then there was an increase in the birth rate, but now these people are 15 years old. In three years, the children of the mother capital would start to enter the draft age, but now this will be pushed back, therefore, from the point of view of demography, this move is unprofitable, ”concluded Raksha. nine0005

Rosstat’s forecast also does not take into account changes in the population by age that have already occurred in 2022 due to the departure of some men abroad in the spring and after the announcement of partial mobilization in September, as well as residents of four new regions that became part of Russia.

Under normal conditions, the increase in the army to the declared new size would have been stretched out for several years. Under the current conditions, this can be significantly accelerated. This is an increase, in fact, one and a half times — the number of armed forces was 1 million military personnel, then during a special operation a few months ago, Putin signed a decree to increase it to 1 million 150 thousand military personnel and now to 1.5 million, notes the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International HSE research Vasily Kashin. Providing these military personnel with infrastructure, weapons, everything necessary, the formation of units will take time.